Market recap
September's NWMLS numbers are clear: buyers finally have choices, and the monthly payment is still the problem. There were 24,965 active listings — up 24.5% from a year ago, the most for September since 2014. Supply reached 4.44 months, a level not seen since February 2014. King County listings rose 31.1%; Snohomish County jumped 44.2%.
Prices barely budged. The regional median slipped 0.9% to $625,000, King County's median was flat at $850,000, and Snohomish County's was $720,000. Pending sales fell 15.1%, the sharpest drop of the year. Condos softened most: King County condos had about seven months of supply, and the median condo price there fell 6% to $496,000.
Rates explain much of that caution. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 7.40% for the week ending October 8 — up from 7.28%, the seventh straight weekly increase, and the highest since November 2023. The 15-year averaged 6.73%.
My takeaway: this is a negotiating market, not a crashing one. Buyers can ask for credits and seller-paid rate buydowns — and right now, a buydown can move a monthly payment more than a small price cut. This week's inflation reports, CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, will likely decide whether rates ease or climb again.
News + my take: Microsoft's green-card pipeline is frozen — and the Eastside should pay attention
On Thursday, October 8, the U.S. Department of Labor suspended eight companies from the PERM program: Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant, Infosys, Tata, Wipro, HCL, and Capgemini. PERM — permanent labor certification — is usually the first step an employer takes to sponsor a worker for an employment-based green card. The department said it will not accept new applications or process pending ones for these companies, citing active federal investigations. No end date was announced.
One point of precision matters: no one's H-1B visa was cancelled. What is frozen is the path from a temporary work visa to permanent residency, including cases already in line.
The two sides disagree on the facts behind it. Administration officials pointed to about 6,000 Microsoft layoffs last year alongside roughly 6,300 H-1B approvals. Microsoft responded that about 80% of its H-1B filings last fiscal year were extensions or status changes for people already working there, and new hires were about 1% of its U.S. workforce.
Why I am watching it: Microsoft is headquartered in Redmond, with roughly 53,000 Puget Sound employees. The Eastside has one of the largest skilled-visa workforces in the country, and tech workers are a major share of buyers there. People unsure whether they can stay permanently tend to pause the biggest purchase of their lives.
I am not predicting a crash, or even a dip. Nobody knows how long this lasts, how many local workers actually have a PERM case pending, or whether employers shift more hiring to U.S. workers, which could offset any softening. What I will watch over the next few weeks is Eastside showing traffic and pending sales. If this touches housing, it will show up there first.
What happened with Mike
It was a two-pending week.
My Woodinville listing at 17921 151st Way NE went pending in just five days at $860,000, and this Sunday the buyers' inspection was settled ahead of the October 13 deadline. Next step is appraisal, with closing set for November 6.
Gold Bar was faster still. My listing at 41220 Ajer Dr went live Thursday morning at $425,000, an offer arrived within eight hours, and it was pending in two days at $438,000, over asking, with inspection waived. Saturday's open house was cancelled because there was nothing left to show. Closing is November 12, for sellers who are also friends. See the Gold Bar listing →
My Lake Roesiger listing at 1311 SW Lake Roesiger Rd in Snohomish also went live Thursday, at $1,199,000 — 4 bed, 2.75 bath, 2,938 sq ft, with 50 feet of lakefront and a private dock. We held open houses Saturday and Sunday, plus a private showing Sunday evening. See the Lake Roesiger listing →
From my Instagram this week
Featured post: the Lake Roesiger Just Listed tour reel from Thursday, October 8 — 26 likes and 5 comments, the most engagement of any post this week. Watch it here: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DeP2R1OzIlz/
That tour — dock to lower-level suite — is the best way to feel the lake place short of standing on the dock. I post local market news and neighborhood breakdowns every week over there, minus the sales pitch.
Follow along → @piccoloproperties
#BetterCallMike